🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."